Economic Confidence-Building Measures and Conflict Settlement

The Case of Transdniestria

The lack of progress towards a settlement of protracted conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union is variously attributed to local intransigence and geopolitical blockage. This has given rise to the idea that a meaningful settlement process needs to address both of these issues by building bridges across local divides in the protracted conflicts and across the deepening divide between Russia and the West. In our paper, we examine the dynamic between these two arenas in the case of the Transdniestrian Settlement Process. We will do this 1) by examining the relationship between the geopolitical and local level theoretically and developing testable hypotheses about the impact of the former on the latter in the context of confidence-building; and 2) by reviewing past confidence-building measures (CBMs) in the case of the Transdniestrian conflict with a particular focus on economy and trade.

Work-in-Progress 1/2018